Perhaps a best-fit line would be sigmoidal, meaning that the extremes in score prediction are more likely to be pulled towards a mean value (Bell curve, anyone?).In this blog post, we are going to share a free PDF download of UWorld 2017 For USMLE Step 2 CK PDF using direct links. One way to interpret this is that lower practice scores are more likely to (real) score higher than predicted, and higher practice scores are more likely to (real) score equal or lower than predicted. The caveat to this is that the best fit line without pegging the y-intercept (again, link) has only a slope of 0.4166. The above suggests that for the range that persons usually score at, NBME 19 prediction is around 15 points under the real score. Here are some sample practice scores and their correlated real scores: Practice The NBME 19 graph ( link) shows that there is a 1.0694 point increase in real score for every 1 point increase in practice score. I have minimal stat experience (a few extra classes on top of step 1 studies), so someone else please feel free to chime in/critique. Additionally, suggestion to collect the variable "Total estimated novel questions encountered while studying for step 1" or something like that.Ĭheers to all the test takers this year. Future Directionsįor next year, suggestion to resume collection of USMLERx Qbank 1st pass percentage, Kaplan QBank 1st pass percentage, and UWorld Qbank 1st pass percentage.
I didn't analyze the COMLEX data set since I have no idea how the scoring system is nor how practice tests work. The data will come after I get around to plugging it into MatLab. NBME-to-test bias was addressed during this survey by collecting the dates of practice tests in comparison to the actual test date however, I can't plot along 3 dimensions in excel. Due most probably to strong selection bias, the average score for this sample was 14 points higher than the historical average of the exam. The sample size is even larger this year than last year, but is still small in comparison to the actual number of test takers. The same limitations plague this data set as with the 2016 data set. Notably, Zanki is gaining market share from Bro's Anki deck. This is closely followed by NBME Practice Exams and Sketchy Micro (and to a lesser extent, Sketchy Pharm). As everyone suspected from anecdotal reports, NBME 19 is a terrible under-predictor of performance.ĭata on resource usage suggests UFAP (Uworld, First Ad, Pathoma) is go-to.
UWSA 1 & 2 tend to overestimate the actual Step 1 score ( m 1, after pegging the intercept at 0). Eyeballing the trend-lines, it appears that the best single practice test for score prediction is the UWorld Self Assessment 2. Starting board review earlier is associated with a 2-4 point increase with each year you begin earlier.ĭesired specialty is also a great predictor of score, but this data set was collected after scores were released, and may thus affect specialty choice.Īll practice test scores showed positive correlation with the actual Step 1 score. IMGs scored similarly to US MD's (247 vs 245). Degree/Program suggests a minor 5 point jump between US DO's and US MD's (240 vs 245). Persons will see around a 10 point jump in their actual Step 1 score between the bottom 25th, middle 50's, and top 25th percentiles. According to the best-fit line, persons will generally do better than their goal score ( m = 1.0058, with the intercept pegged at 0). The biggest predictor of score (aside from practice exams) is your Goal Score and your Class Percentile. The national historical average for Step 1 is one standard deviation below the average of this data set. Standard Deviation: 14.25 Actual Step 1 Score vsĭistributions Resource Usage Percentile & Beginning Studying Distributions Interactive Data InterpretationĮveryone in this data set passed Step 1. Mean Actual Step 1 Score for this Sample: 244.02 Hope this helps everyone taking the 2018 USMLE Step 1. Thanks to everyone who participated, to u/Waygzh for the previous data set and analysis (which I obsessed over during dedicated), and to u/aervien for the data collection this year.